Munich Security Conference 2026 – The West Is Not Falling Apart, But…

Every February, the Munich Security Conference turns Munich into the temporary capital of international security. Presidents, ministers, generals, and policy experts gather to discuss wars, deterrence, alliances, and the future of international order.

This year, however, Munich did not produce a revolution. It produced a realization.

From Volodymyr Zelensky’s urgent appeals to Emmanuel Macron’s renewed push for European sovereignty, from Friedrich Merz’s strategic recalibration to Marco Rubio’s redefinition of American priorities, one thing became clear: the transatlantic relationship remains essential — but it no longer feels effortless.

Munich rarely delivers dramatic turning points. What it offered instead was more revealing: a snapshot of an alliance under pressure, still standing, but increasingly aware of its own fragilities.

Original illustration - Atlantic Perspectives

This article does not attempt to cover every panel or summarize every intervention. The Munich Security Conference is dense. Rather than offering a catalogue of speeches, this analysis focuses on a handful of key voices that capture the broader strategic mood. Together, they reflect the main tensions shaping today’s transatlantic conversation.

Friedrich Merz – No More Illusions, Europe Must Grow Up

Friedrich Merz did not come to Munich with nostalgia or romanticism. Just a blunt diagnosis: the old international order is gone. Not weakened. Gone. The rules-based system, flawed as it was, no longer structures global politics. We are back to raw power — spheres of influence, supply chains as weapons, technology as leverage. And Europe, he implied, has just woken up from a long strategic vacation.

Merz did not present Europe as a victim. The problem, he admitted, is not a lack of potential — it is a lack of seriousness. The European Union’s economy dwarfs Russia’s, yet Europe is nowhere near ten times stronger. Why? Because ambition long exceeded capability. Too much moral lecturing. Not enough hard power. A “normative surplus” without the means to back it up. That gap, he said, is now being closed.

The United States, meanwhile, is adapting fast to great-power rivalry, particularly vis-à-vis China. Yet Merz insisted that even Washington cannot go it alone. In an era of continental powers, the U.S. also needs alliances. NATO, he stressed, is not only Europe’s competitive advantage; it is America’s as well. The limits of U.S. power are real.

The balance he tried to strike was clear: writing off Washington is unrealistic, but blind dependency is over. The goal is not European hegemony — never again — but a sovereign, self-sustained pillar within NATO. Strong enough to stand. Strong enough to negotiate. Strong enough to be taken seriously.

And this is where the nuclear dimension surfaced explicitly. Merz revealed that he had opened discussions with Emmanuel Macron on European nuclear deterrence. Not as a rupture with NATO. Not as an alternative to American nuclear sharing. But as a way of thinking seriously about what a credible European pillar inside the Alliance actually means. Even raising the issue signals a deeper shift: Europe is beginning to reflect on deterrence not as an abstract guarantee, but as a concrete responsibility.

Europe cannot complain about big power politics if it refuses to play at that level. The mental shift must happen now. Freedom is no longer a given. It has to be defended — with money, industry, deterrence, and political will. Europe must grow up.

Kaja Kallas – Stop Writing Europe’s Obituary

At the Munich Security Conference, Kaja Kallas pushed back — calmly but firmly — against a narrative increasingly amplified by President Trump and parts of his administration: that Europe is weak, “woke,” overregulated, and sliding toward civilizational erasure. She rejected the premise. Europe is not collapsing. It is not dissolving. And it is certainly not erasing itself.

The argument she countered is politically powerful: open borders, climate “dogma,” bureaucratic Brussels, deindustrialization. The familiar list. But Kallas flipped the frame. If Europe were truly decadent and dying, why do countries like Ukraine and several Western Balkan states still want in? People do not queue to join a sinking ship. They queue to join something stable and worth defending.

That does not mean everything is perfect. She acknowledged that Europe and the United States will not agree on everything — migration, climate policy, multilateral institutions. Disagreement is not decay. And asserting European values is not weakness. Add to that her warning on Russia — do not give Moscow at the negotiating table what it failed to seize on the battlefield — and the line becomes clear: Europe is under pressure. Erased? Not even close.

Emmanuel Macron – The Consensus Catches Up

When the French president spoke in Munich, he did not reinvent himself. He reinforced a line he has held for years. Europe is not weak — it is underestimating itself. A stronger Europe, he argued, is not a threat to the United States but a better ally. Everyone is asking Europe to step up — except, sometimes, Europeans themselves.

He rejected the caricature of a fragmented, declining continent. Europe remains a radically original political project: sovereign nations choosing cooperation over coercion. And if proof is needed, look at the countries still lining up to join the European Union. You do not apply to enter a dying club.

But his intervention went further than rhetoric. He insisted on a change of mindset. Europe must stop internalizing its critics. It must speak positively about its model — peace through integration, prosperity through cooperation, democratic resilience through institutions. Self-doubt, he implied, is a strategic liability.

Pride alone, however, is not strategy. Europe must rearm, invest, reduce dependencies, and think at continental scale — not French scale, not German scale — European scale. Power must be organized collectively, not fragmented nationally.

On Ukraine, he was unequivocal. Europe has delivered — financially and militarily — and must remain central to any settlement. No peace without Europeans. No security architecture for Europe designed without Europeans. Europe must not discover major strategic decisions in the newspapers. It must be at the table because it carries the consequences.

He did not say “I told you so.” He did not need to. As Berlin speaks of mental shifts and Washington demands burden-sharing, once-controversial ideas about European sovereignty look less like French ambition and more like strategic necessity. The debate has moved. The consensus is catching up.

Marco Rubio – “For the United States and Europe, we belong together.” But…

Marco Rubio arrived with reassuring words: the United States and Europe “belong together.” Shared civilization. Shared sacrifices. Shared history. The emotional case for the alliance was firmly laid out.

Then the tone shifted.

According to Rubio, the West did not simply face external threats after the Cold War — it made serious mistakes. It believed in the “end of history.” It outsourced sovereignty to institutions. It embraced unrestrained trade while factories closed and supply chains drifted abroad. It allowed borders to weaken and defense budgets to shrink. Comfort replaced strategy.

What follows, in his view, is renewal: hard power, borders, industry, energy, sovereignty. Partnership with Europe remains desirable — but it must be serious and reciprocal. No more managed decline. No more abstract talk of global governance while rivals build armies.

The awkward question remains: which Europe?

The speech praised a proud, sovereign Europe. Yet President Trump has often treated the European Union less as a partner than as an economic rival. Washington appears more comfortable dealing with strong national capitals than with a consolidated Brussels negotiating as an equal. A Europe of nations? Yes. A federal Europe pushing back? Less certain.

On Ukraine, Rubio remained cautious: negotiations are being tested; sanctions and support continue. On China, the message was pragmatic — engage, manage tensions, avoid conflict, but never at the expense of U.S. national interests.

In Rubio’s view, the alliance survives — but it must operate on clearer, American-defined terms.

Volodymyr Zelensky – Missiles Don’t Wait for Politics

When Volodymyr Zelensky spoke in Munich, he did not bring theory. He brought numbers. Ballistic missiles. Shahed drones. 5,000 glide bombs. 6,000 attack drones in a single month. Power plants damaged. Patriots nearly empty.

For Ukraine, war is not a geopolitical debate. It is logistics. Seconds. Whether missiles arrive on Sunday before a Thursday night strike.

His message went beyond gratitude. It was about urgency. Every day matters. Every delay costs lives. Weapons evolve faster than political decisions. While partners debate escalation, Russia upgrades drones and buys time. In war, the war owns the clock.

Ukraine, he stressed, is holding the European front. Behind Ukrainian soldiers stand Poland, the Baltics, Moldova, Romania. Yet this cannot be a permanent arrangement. Ukrainians are not terminators. They are human beings.

He offered an uncomfortable reminder: before the invasion, Ukraine asked for preventive action. Sanctions. Weapons. Signals of strength. Instead, it was told to “dig trenches.” Hesitation invites aggression. Putin listens to strength.

Peace without real security guarantees is an illusion. No deal over Europe’s head. No architecture for European security without Europeans — and without Ukraine. A stronger Europe, a credible NATO, a united front: that is deterrence. Ukraine is ready for peace. Not for surrender dressed up as compromise.

Gavin Newsom – America Is Not Just Washington

Then there was Gavin Newsom — a different American voice in Munich. Not federal. Not Trump-aligned. While the White House recalibrates alliances and questions climate commitments, Newsom positioned California as a stable, predictable partner. America is not just Washington.

This was not an isolated appearance. He had already been visible in Davos at the World Economic Forum. The pattern is clear. In global forums where Trump’s America is scrutinized, Newsom steps in as a counter-image. From climate cooperation to reconstruction partnerships with Ukraine, from meetings with European leaders to transatlantic engagement, he embodies a strand of American opposition seeking to reassure allies.

Not to replace U.S. foreign policy. But to signal that the American debate is not settled — and that the transatlantic relationship still has defenders inside the United States.

On the whole – No Collapse. No Illusions.

Munich did not show a West falling apart. It showed a West losing its illusions.

No dramatic breakup. No grand rupture. The alliance is still there. But the comfort is gone. The reflexive unity is gone. The sentimental speeches about “shared values” are no longer enough on their own.

What emerged instead was something more demanding. Europe talking seriously about power — defense budgets, industrial capacity, even nuclear deterrence. The United States talking about reciprocity and national interest without apology. Ukraine reminding everyone that delay has a body count. And even inside America, visible fractures about what leadership should look like.

In short: the alliance is not dissolving. It is toughening up.

The post–Cold War phase of managed decline, strategic laziness, and comfortable dependency is over. What replaces it is less romantic, more transactional, more explicit about leverage and limits. Not weaker — just less naïve.

Munich did not deliver a turning point. It delivered a reality check.

The West is still standing.

But it now knows that standing requires effort.